x*******u
发帖数: 500 | 1 rr = age-adjusted incidence rate 1/age-adjusted incidence rate 2
how to calculate the confidence interval of rr?
Thank you very much |
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D********g
发帖数: 533 | 2 多谢。听人说可以用confident interval regression，请问这个思路对么？
谢谢！ |
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w*******9
发帖数: 1433 | 3 I agree with you. No matter whether you condition on X or not, the chance
that the (random) CI obtained by treating X as fixed contains the
true parameter is still 95%. It applies to all regression problems.
In Linear regression, when X is fixed, the sampling distribution and
variance calculation of hatbeta is easy; if you treat X as random, the
sampling distribution and variance calculation of hatbeta (which is a
function of both X and Y) would be very hard, but if you can determine the
samplin... 阅读全帖 |
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p*******s
发帖数: 6 | 4 这个study 比较特殊，n 个case (n<10) , k 个 rater (k>100.)
根据下面这篇文章算icc(3,1). http://www.na-mic.org/Wiki/images/4/4b/Shrout_and_fleiss_ICC.pdf
结果icc（3，1）=0.52，但confidence interval=(-0.004,0.032).
我的计算ci 的code如下（参见文章424页左下角，icc（3，1）的计算参见文章423页右
下角）：
ratio= bms/ems;
f= probf(ratio,(n-1),(n-1)*(k-1));
f975f8= quantile('F',.975,(n-1),(n-1)*(k-1));
f975f9= quantile('F',.975,(n-1)*(k-1),(n-1));
fl= f/f975f8;
fu= f*f975f9;
c31l= (fl-1)/(fl+(k-1));
c31u= (fu-1)/(fu+(k-1));
我的code错了吗？还是我的st... 阅读全帖 |
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j*********3
发帖数: 23 | 5 dataset是nhanes, 我想要计算某种疾病的prevalence的confidence interval, 这里面
每个观察值都有权重n1,n2,...nk（代表n1,n2,...nk个类似的个体），请问各
位大牛这时sample size应该如何选择和计算？又该用什么方法呢？ 谢谢！ |
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G***G
发帖数: 16778 | 6 how to get sensitivity's confidence interval in R?
suppose we have the confusion matrix
true
pred a b
c d |
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a********e
发帖数: 78 | 7 针对一个数据集建立回归模型后，如何计算 confidence interval 和 prediction
interval. R 里的predict.lm 能够提供这两个指标。这只是针对线性回归的。 但还
有其他
general的模型比如 cart，gam.感觉这两个指标应该是基于bootstrap方法的，但没找
到相关文献。 |
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s****h
发帖数: 3979 | 8 偶尔看看版上贴的机器学习时报，大数据时报，多谢热情贴主阿。
有个问题就是内容都太新太高大上了，不接地气啊，呵呵。
难得有个接地气的,又不太搞得懂.
http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors
今天, 看到上面那个link讲p value的问题, 觉得有道理,可是又不明白到底是怎么回事
.那位统计大牛讲一讲?
我统计的东西懂得浅, 请教一下,这么一来,什么confidence interval啥的都不靠谱了?
regression里算出来的p value也不可靠?
举个例子, X ~ binomial分布 px.
10000个sample, sum = 2000, std = sqrt(10000 * 0.2 * 0.8) = 40
px值在( 2000 - 1.96 * 40 ~ 2000 + 1.96 * 40) 间的可能性是95%
如果有 Y ~ binomial分布 py, 10000个sample, sum = 1900.
有个公式算 px > py 的p value的,现在这个p value没... 阅读全帖 |
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t********6
发帖数: 43 | 9 Confidence interval和pvalue都是基于假定的distribution来估算的。
interpretation就是基于假定的分布的variance，如果有<0.05的可能性你观察到的
mean的差别是chance，那你就可以reject null，然后认定两组有差别。
但具体的数据未必符合假设，尤其是variance。相对来讲bayesian bandit的ab test更
接近实际一些 |
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f**c
发帖数: 629 | 10 why you are so confident to all in? |
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v**********m
发帖数: 5516 | 11 10.59pm: Numbers now out. Papandreou wins the confidence of the government.
155 MPs voted yes, four more than the 151 the prime minister needed. |
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S******A
发帖数: 238 | 12 Have you learned to wait with confidence?
O Lord, hear me as I pray; pay attention to my groaning.… Listen to my
voice in the morning, Lord. Each morning I bring my requests to you and wait
expectantly.
Psalm 5:1-3 NLT
Waiting expectantly
In World War I, Field Marshal Foch, the Allied commander in chief, could not
be found when a military conference was about to start. An officer friend
said, "I think I know where he might be." Foch was found praying nearby at a
bombed-out
chapel.
Abraham Lincol |
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w**t
发帖数: 1037 | 13
逛网上论坛，看到一篇老文章，是采访丹 拿老总的，请自动忽略文中夹带的 私货。
从Evidence到Sapphire：Dynaudio不断创新的技术
谈到Evidence和Confidence C4和C2的设计时，我说自从Dynaudio推出
Evidence后，市面上开始有很多采用相同设计的高级喇叭出现，我问这种柱状对称结构
的喇叭是Dynaudio首创吗？Wilfried Ehrenholz说这种设计并非Dynaudio首创，最先应
该是一家澳洲音响公司Duntech的设计，不过Dynaudio采用这种柱状对称式设计之后，
投入不少创新和改良技术，例如两只高音单元并列，就是Dynaudio独创的技术，加上
Dynaudio超高水准的单元，令Evidence Master至今仍然属于世界级好声喇叭之一。
Evidence Master和Evidence Temptation我买不起，由于下级的Confidence系
列继承了不少Evidence技术，特别是DDC（Dynaudio Directivity Control）指向性控
制技术（主... 阅读全帖 |
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p********m
发帖数: 325 | 14 万分感谢KD和各位attending 的无私贡献。
会后和两位最有经验的面试官聊了几句。 非常让我惊讶， 他们对自己一天中最满意和
印象深刻的面试者的评价，不是分数毕业年限见习文章， 反而是：
1. very energetic
2. know exactly what he / she wants
3. very confident
I really understood the importance of those transferable skills/
characteristics !!!! and will work on being more energetic / confident
-----------
How to be more energetic and confident (ZT)
What is confidence, if not the difference between feeling like the sky’s
the limit and the world is out to get you? Having enough self-conf... 阅读全帖 |
|
p********m
发帖数: 325 | 15 万分感谢KD和各位attending 的无私贡献。
会后和两位最有经验的面试官聊了几句。 非常让我惊讶， 他们对自己一天中最满意和
印象深刻的面试者的评价，不是分数毕业年限见习文章， 反而是：
1. very energetic
2. know exactly what he / she wants
3. very confident
I really understood the importance of those transferable skills/
characteristics !!!! and will work on being more energetic / confident
-----------
How to be more energetic and confident (ZT)
What is confidence, if not the difference between feeling like the sky’s
the limit and the world is out to get you? Having enough self-conf... 阅读全帖 |
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R*******d
发帖数: 13640 | 16 【 以下文字转载自 NewMexico 讨论区 】
发信人: Rosefield (Rosenhof), 信区: NewMexico
标 题: 斯坦大学教授教你怎样审稿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 8 10:13:35 2013, 美东)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7x7Nr2Scic
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/q7x7Nr2Scic
How to do a peer view? Transcript
Welcome to week eight of the course. This is the final week of the
course.
Thanks everyone for making it along this far and for the great
participation in
this course. The paper revisions will be due at the
end of this week. That will ... 阅读全帖 |
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R*******d
发帖数: 13640 | 17 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7x7Nr2Scic
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/q7x7Nr2Scic
How to do a peer view? Transcript
Welcome to week eight of the course. This is the final week of the
course.
Thanks everyone for making it along this far and for the great
participation in
this course. The paper revisions will be due at the
end of this week. That will be the last assignment.
This week, I'm going to be talking about what happens after publication.
So, after you get papers pu... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 9098 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 Dreamer 讨论区 】
发信人: falling (旋转坠落), 信区: Dreamer
标 题: 推荐一篇文章
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 16 00:48:35 2012, 美东)
http://geniustypes.com/signs_of_insecurity/
Signs of Insecurity by Brian Lee
One of the greatest challenges we face in our lifetimes is becoming
comfortable in our own skin. A person who is secure with himself is much
more likely to achieve success, have meaningful relationships, and be
respected by others.
A person who is insecure finds difficulty in many aspects of life. Since
mo... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 19 “The System is Broken”: Americans No Longer Believe In Its Institutions
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/the-system-is-broken-amer
Only 8 percent have confidence in Congress, down by 16 points from a long-
term average of 24 percent – the lowest of all institutions rated.
33 percent have confidence in the presidency, a drop from a historical
average of 43 percent.
32 percent have confidence in the Supreme Court, down from 44.
28 percent have confidence in banks, down from 40 percent.
21 per... 阅读全帖 |
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g****g
发帖数: 1828 | 20 In probability theory, the normal (or Gaussian) distribution, is a
continuous probability distribution that is often used as a first
approximation to describe real-valued random variables that tend to cluster
around a single mean value. The graph of the associated probability density
function is “bell”-shaped, and is known as the Gaussian function or bell
curve:[nb 1]
f(x) = \tfrac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi\sigma^2}}\; e^{ -\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}
},
where parameter μ is the mean (location of the pe... 阅读全帖 |
|
d****n
发帖数: 12461 | 21 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
xiaoxiaoren (可爱小宝宝) 于 (Sat Aug 18 20:23:47 2012, 美东) 提到:
本子一用就是6年，vendor还赚什么钱啊？
现在别的不要比，只要把你们dell啦，hp啦，beat掉，就行了。
现在比来弄我强的本子还真是不多，
国内的神州也许算一个，便宜，配置高，service好，据说免费扫灰+免费加油。
当然了，商务精英需要每隔3个月去保养，也就是joke了。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
baal (白日梦) 于 (Sat Aug 18 21:11:44 2012, 美东) 提到:
我看现在的T系列不如latitude
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
vMars (vMars) 于 (Sat Aug 18 21:28:00 2012, 美东) 提到:
dell，hp也分三六九等，高端的型号一点不差，就是被低端的毁了名声而已
具体到型号的话，W... 阅读全帖 |
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s**l
发帖数: 869 | 22 非常感谢！！
您说的意思我有点理解，但不是很明白。
1。 CLT 是central limit theorem吗？
2。 能否介绍一两本入门的书籍，关于confidence interval 和 hypothesis test.
3。 "confidence interval: p+/-z*sqrt(p(1-p)/n))"，这个是代表 “confidence
interval = p+/-z*sqrt(p(1-p)/n))”吗？
4。 "如果用95% confidence interval那么z=1.96 (2 sigma)" -- 这句话我不太明白
，是说p=95%，let z=1.96 (why?), find associate "confidence interval". (what
about n?)
5。 您介绍的两个公式（hypothesis test 和 confidence interval）我都非常感兴趣
。能否推荐一两本浅显的书籍。我很想多了解下这两种公式。谢谢！
取100个的话那么样本size算够大了，可以用CLT
有很多种方法，可以用hypothesis te... 阅读全帖 |
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m****d
发帖数: 372 | 23 IMF Executive Board Approves 30 Billion Stand-By Arrangement
for Greece
Press Release No. 10/187
May 9, 2010
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved
a three-year SDR 26.4 billion (30 billion) Stand-By Arrangement for Greece
in support of the authorities’ economic adjustment and transformation prog
ram. This front-loaded program makes SDR 4.8 billion (about 5.5 billion) i
mmediately available to Greece from the IMF as part of joint financing with
the European U... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 24 Pyongyang, December 13 (KCNA) -- Upon hearing the report on the enlarged
meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers'
Party of Korea, the service personnel and people throughout the country
broke into angry shouts that a stern judgment of the revolution should be
meted out to the anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional elements.
Against the backdrop of these shouts rocking the country, a special military
tribunal of the DPRK Ministry of State Security was held o... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 By Terence P. Jeffrey
September 21, 2012
(CNSNews.com) -Only 8 percent of Americans say they have a "great deal" of
trust in the news media, according to a new Gallup poll.
That is down from 11 percent a year ago and is a record low for the 40 years
that Gallup has been polling on the question.
See Gallup's analysis of the survey here.
Since 1972, Gallup has periodically asked respondents: “In general, how
much trust and confidence do you have in the mass media--such as newspapers,
T.V. and radi... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 US consumer confidence slides in September
September 30, 2014 - 1:35 PM
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in September after
hitting the highest level in nearly seven years in August. But economists
said the fall appears to be a temporary slip that shouldn't dampen consumer
spending in the coming months.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its confidence index fell to 86.0
, the lowest point since a May reading of 82.2. It was t... 阅读全帖 |
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G****a
发帖数: 10208 | 27 America’s Most Livable States
10. Maryland
> Future livability score: 18.5
> Full-time employment: 3rd best
> Job creation index: 24th best
> Outlook on life in five years: 16th best
Maryland is the state with the 10th-best outlook in the country, according
to Gallup’s Future Livability survey. The state has the wealthiest
population in the nation based on median household income, according to
recent Census data. Also, just 8.4% of Maryland households live below the
poverty line, compared to the... 阅读全帖 |
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d****y
发帖数: 535 | 28 儿子们上的空手道课专门讲了这个，以下是发给家长的邮件内容，当然我家俩小子还没
碰到过这种情况，但是我觉得应该很有用。
Bully Information
Parents; we hope the following information is helpful. Here are a few tools
you can use at home with your child. If you have any questions please feel
free to talk with an Instructor.
All the motivation that a child has to succeed in school, sports, and any
endeavor in life, comes from a child's confidence and self-esteem. A bully
robs a child of those very important traits that can have a negative impact
on the re... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 29 Gallup: American's Economic Confidence in Decline Again
By Michael Morris | May 26, 2015 | 5:00 PM EDT
American's economic confidence is in decline again, registering -9 for the
week ending May 24, 2015 on Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index, two
points lower than the previous week.
http://www.cnsnews.com/s3/files/styles/content_60p/s3/gallups_u
According to Gallup, the index has consistently read well below zero since
the beginning of the recession. The index did move into positive territor... 阅读全帖 |
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n**********n
发帖数: 984 | 30 Trump主席语录，我来注释一下前三条。
You can't be scared. You do your thing, you hold your ground, you stand up
tall, and whatever happens, happens. （我看版上很多人患得患失，TRUMP作为当事
人，镇定得很。）
Sometimes by losing a battle you find a new way to win the war. （从IOWA结果
，迅速学会了Ground Game）
Without passion, you don't have any energy, and without energy, you simply
have nothing. （不断演讲，不断的发帖，不断的辩论，高能量。）
Do not spend too much time planning or trying to anticipate and solve
problems before they happen. That is just another kind of ex... 阅读全帖 |
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S********t
发帖数: 3431 | 31 for me, the progress is roughly below:
groomers:
comfortable/confident on green: 3d
comfortable/confident on blue: 10d
comfortable/confident on black (groomed): 15d
steeps:
survive double black: 35d
comfortable/confident on double black: 40~45d (good~normal snow condition)
don't care much about slope degree: >60d (except for deep mogul run)
powder:
survive powder: 1~3 powder days @ 20~40 ski days
comfortable/confident in powder: >5 powder days, >45 ski days
moguls:
survive mogul: 30d
more comfor... 阅读全帖 |
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d****y
发帖数: 2180 | 32 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hmis (hmis) 于 (Sat Apr 14 07:20:51 2012, 美东) 提到:
活动主题：MATCH TALK 第3季感受征文活动
活动内容：麦地近期组织了一些类的针对麦地同学的讲座活动，为了更多增强麦地间的
交流，吸引更多的新鲜血液。 讲座结束后，呼吁大家写感想，从而吸引更多的人。
活动奖励办法：50WB/ID
自动参与下一季两次讲座！！！
截止日期：4/17号。
已经发了感想的同学，请把标题加上[讲座征文-3]，并请在此贴下写下自己的名字及文
章连接以及文章，这样便于板务下次的统计，谢谢！！！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
daisyy (daisy) 于 (Sat Apr 14 09:08:04 2012, 美东) 提到:
请大家把文章都贴到这，方便版务做合集收精华区，谢谢！！！！！！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wherewhen123 (浪子，请远离) ... 阅读全帖 |
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p********m
发帖数: 325 | 33 今天看到一个非常好的关于如何提高自己在社交中自信的帖子，非常适用面试和面试前
的准备。 把最好的部分转到这里。 值得记住每一个字：
A Quick Guide to Gaining Confidence When You Socialize
By Leo Babauta
I’m a shy person by nature, not a natural extrovert and definitely not
comfortable in large groups of people. So if you’re like me at all, then
this guide is for you. I’ve had to learn to be more confident in social
situations, and it hasn’t exactly been easy. But some things I’ve learned
how to do over the years:
1. Introduce myself to new people and quickly... 阅读全帖 |
|
X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 34 Since Ben Bernanke only initiated an extension of Operation Twist this past
week, the spotlight has now shifted to European politicians and their
impending summit next week on June 28 and 29. For Minyanville's breakdown of
what to expect at these summits, see What to Look for Next Week in European
Summits.
Upcoming economic data could point toward a recovery after last week's
housing data showed no great change. New Home Sales on Monday will be an
important datapoint. Manufacturing data was also... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 35 Mike
You might want to look into cracking down first on our own
pharmaceutical industry. That’s possibly where a great many opioid
addictions start with overprescribed prescription medications that are
opiate-based. Encouraging China to execute more people is probably not the
answer.
Donald J. Trump
.....considered to be the worst and most dangerous, addictive and deadly
substance of them all. Last year over 77,000 people died from Fentanyl. If
China cracks down on this “horror drug,” usi... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 36 Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Americans are more pessimistic than ever that the U.S. economy will improve
during the next year.
Just 27% of American Adults now believe the U.S. economy will be stronger in
one year, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone
survey. That’s down from 31% in June and is the lowest finding in regular
tracking since January 2009. Prior to the latest survey, the number of
adults expecting a stronger economy in a year’s time ranged from 31% to 45%.
Fift... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 37 How college students think they are more special than EVER: Study reveals
rocketing sense of entitlement on U.S. campuses
By Daily Mail Reporter
PUBLISHED: 15:30 EST, 5 January 2013 | UPDATED: 14:29 EST, 7 January 2013
Books aside, if you asked a college freshman today who the Greatest
Generation is, they might respond by pointing in a mirror.
Young people's unprecedented level of self-infatuation was revealed in a new
analysis of the American Freshman Survey, which has been asking students to
r... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 38 先前对不上号的手机充电器对上了，警察现在认定枪手只有一个人。但屋里有多少人查
走廊监控不久行了吗？
Police ‘Confident’ No One Else in Shooter’s Room Before Las Vegas Attack
by KASIE HUNT, TOM WINTER, MIGUEL ALMAGUER, PETE WILLIAMS and PHIL
MCCAUSLAND
Investigators are "confident" that no one else entered the Las Vegas hotel
suite before a gunman opened fire on a crowd of thousands of concertgoers,
killing 58 people in the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.
Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Undersheriff Kevin McMahill said
Fr... 阅读全帖 |
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l**a
发帖数: 5175 | 39
Confidence comes from ability.
For example, a 13 year old girl will be very confident in front of 8, 9
year old children.
She is comfortable and confident in that situation.
Improving her ability will help, inner strength is not easy to be built.
Some people do not have confidence for their whole life.
Usually, people do not like highly confident girls,
People like lovely girls, so girls not confident but lovely will be more
acceptable by society. |
|
v**********m
发帖数: 5516 | 40 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/jun/21/greece-vote-of
By Barry Moody and Harry Papachristou
ATHENS | Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:21pm EDT
ATHENS (Reuters) - More than 20,000 chanting protesters besieged the Greek
parliament on Tuesday before Prime Minister George Papandreou's embattled
government faced a confidence vote crucial to avoiding a sovereign default.
In the biggest protest in Syntagma square for several days, the protesters
chanted slogans against the politicians, shone hundreds of gr... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******d
发帖数: 1879 | 41 摘要:
- Median price to household income ratio is history low at 153%
- history low mortgage interest
- Median mortgage payment is only 78% of median asking rent, and it used to
be 105% before 2005
- new house price is only 25% higher than construction cost, and it is twice
as much in 2005
全文:
With the debt crisis in Europe still unresolved and economic growth in the U
.S. sluggish, the capital markets continue to exhibit elevated volatility.
However, this does not mean that no investment opportun... 阅读全帖 |
|
k*****y
发帖数: 744 | 42 Well, I think they might probably ask:
Would you like to bet 20:1 on your answer 741 is correct?
Are you truely 95% confident that 741 is correct?
I think if you are only 95% confident, you should not make the bet; though
if you are more than 96% confident, then you should.
I don't know how to answer this kind of questions. But to be safe, I think I
might find a rigorous lowerbound A and upperbound B, so hopefully [A, B] is
my almost 100% confidence interval, and take 95% percent middle part(or
... 阅读全帖 |
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k*****y
发帖数: 744 | 43 Well, I think they might probably ask:
Would you like to bet 20:1 on your answer 741 is correct?
Are you truely 95% confident that 741 is correct?
I think if you are only 95% confident, you should not make the bet; though
if you are more than 96% confident, then you should.
I don't know how to answer this kind of questions. But to be safe, I think I
might find a rigorous lowerbound A and upperbound B, so hopefully [A, B] is
my almost 100% confidence interval, and take 95% percent middle part(or
... 阅读全帖 |
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B********4
发帖数: 7156 | 44 这个问题我也迷糊了很久，查了不少资料，但还不是100%有把握。希望学统计的来指正
一下。
p-value是说在零假设（H0)之下出现看到该情况或者更极端情况的概率，也就是假设硬
币是fair的，抛6次出现5个head或者6个head的概率。因为我们考虑对称性，所以还要
考虑到1个head或者0个head的情况。楼主的p-value计算是对的。
significance level α只是预先设定的一个判定p-value的阈值（即多小的概率算小概
率事件），如果p<=α，我们认为零假设不对(因为在H0之下居然观察到了一个小概率事
件，肯定假设H0有问题）。反之，如果p>α,我们接受零假设H0。
根据wikipedia "given the availability of a hypothesis testing procedure that
can test the null hypothesis θ = θ0 against the alternative that θ ≠ θ
0 for any value of θ0, then a confidence interval with... 阅读全帖 |
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B********4
发帖数: 7156 | 45 这个问题我也迷糊了很久，查了不少资料，但还不是100%有把握。希望学统计的来指正
一下。
p-value是说在零假设（H0)之下出现看到该情况或者更极端情况的概率，也就是假设硬
币是fair的，抛6次出现5个head或者6个head的概率。因为我们考虑对称性，所以还要
考虑到1个head或者0个head的情况。楼主的p-value计算是对的。
significance level α只是预先设定的一个判定p-value的阈值（即多小的概率算小概
率事件），如果p<=α，我们认为零假设不对(因为在H0之下居然观察到了一个小概率事
件，肯定假设H0有问题）。反之，如果p>α,我们接受零假设H0。
根据wikipedia "given the availability of a hypothesis testing procedure that
can test the null hypothesis θ = θ0 against the alternative that θ ≠ θ
0 for any value of θ0, then a confidence interval with... 阅读全帖 |
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G**B
发帖数: 371 | 46 来自主题: _BibleStudy版 - 每日灵修 【全年讀經進度】使徒行傳12
【今日默想禱讀經文】徒 12:5-7
於是彼得被囚在監裡；教會卻為他切切的禱告神。
希律將要提他出來的前一夜，彼得被兩條鐵鍊鎖著，睡在兩個兵丁當中；看守的人也在
門外看守。
忽然，有主的一個使者站在旁邊，屋裡有光照耀，天使拍彼得的肋旁，拍醒了他，說：
快快起來！那鐵鍊就從他手上脫落下來。
【今日信息】就是今夜 By Rev. Andrew Tsai
我不明白彼得當時的心情是甚麼？因為約翰的兄弟雅各剛剛被殺死，為主殉道。緊接
著，彼得又被抓，看起來彼得是難逃一劫了。
就在這一夜，大家的心情都不一樣。
對彼得來說，這有可能是他在世上的最後一夜，這一夜他反而睡得安穩，為什麼呢
？對於彼得來說，自從主升天之後，他非常努力的在傳福音，也帶領了許多人信主，或
許他覺得夠了，他可以向主交待了，他終於可以息了地上的勞苦，可以歡歸天家了，終
於可以與主相會面了。這好像是他在地上的最後一夜，所以他反而睡得安穩。
對希律王來說，他的心情是非常得意的，因為殺了雅各，似乎使他的聲望民調更加
提升，所以緊接著再殺一個彼得，可能使他聲望更是大漲。所以這一夜，他可能正在開
慶功宴。
... 阅读全帖 |
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c***s
发帖数: 70028 | 47 11月13日这天，上海大众333车队换上了人手一台iPhone5。这是“韩少”送的礼物。
在大众333车队，多数人喜欢戏称韩寒为“韩少”。几天前，韩少背回了一麻袋iPhone5，送给自己的赛车维修团队，当作庆祝自己拿下2012赛季中国房车锦标赛(CTCC)年度总冠军的礼物。
11月5日，2012年度CTCC收官站回到上海国际赛车场，韩寒最后一站第四位出发，后来居上，总积分赶超福特车队的江藤一，自上月底提前锁定中国汽车拉力锦标赛(CRC)年度总冠军后，再下一城，登2012CTCC年度冠军。他也成为中国赛车史上第一个同一赛季登顶CRC和CTCC两项赛事年度冠军的车手。
他是年轻的畅销书作家，拥有800万粉丝的微博红人，出过一张唱片的音乐人，已经停刊杂志的主编，更是一位职业赛车手恐怕是韩寒被公众认可的身份。事实上，直到2009年获得中国拉力赛年度总冠军时，还有媒体记者悄悄在问：这比赛是不是有两个组，正经车手一组，韩寒、林志颖、莫慧兰等票友另一组？
韩寒对于“正经车手”有自己的看法。“我觉得车手就分好车手和差车手，一个好车手，他哪怕有一万个职业，只要他是最快的，他就是最好的职业车手。”
曾经被... 阅读全帖 |
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l*j
发帖数: 835 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 NewYork 讨论区 】
发信人: lzj (老骆), 信区: NewYork
标 题: 我为什么去抗议--There is something cannot joke about
关键字: Jimmy Kimmel,protest
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 10 20:42:17 2013, 美东)
昨天时代广场回来后，在家写了这几次抗议的感受，如有需要修
改的地方，请告知
There is something cannot joke about - Jimmy Kimmel
There are some protests against Jimmy Kimmel through several states. I went
to three events which took place in NYC. I emphasize my attendance to
strongly advocate that there is something cannot be joke at. Mr. Kimmel
joked (maybe he i... 阅读全帖 |
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R**********n
发帖数: 523 | 49 http://www.weidb.com/voice/index.php?title=There_is_something_y
There is something you cannot joke about
(By Zhijian Luo)
There is something you cannot joke about - Jimmy Kimmel
There are some protests against Jimmy Kimmel through several states. I went
to three events which took place in NYC. I emphasize my attendance to
strongly advocate that there is something cannot be joke at. Mr. Kimmel
joked (maybe he is not joking) about the most precious thing to me including
the life of my family. In t... 阅读全帖 |
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